Boris left with majority of one after Tories lose byelection; chances of general election increase
The Liberal Democrats won the Brecon and Radnorshire seat from the Tories who had had a majority of 8,038 at the 2017 snap general election.
Lib Dems MP Jane Dodds, who does not even live in the constituency, got 13,826 votes, and Tory candidate Chris Davies got 12,401 votes in what became a two-horse race.
The result dealt a blow to Boris Johnson[1] as it was seen as his first electoral test nine days after becoming prime minister. With a majority of just one, it has drastically increased the chances of an early general election.
It has left the Tories with 310 seats and their confidence-and-supply partners, Democratic Unionist Party, have 10. The opposition combined have 319 as 11 MPs do not vote. The Lib Dems now have 13 MPs.
“Even if Boris can Brexit[2] done by October 31 it will be a battle to get through any legislation after that and to win a vote of no confidence,” explained Chris Curtis[3], research manager at data analytics firm YouGov.
But it is difficult to say who would win it, he said. Current polls suggest the Tories would start a general election as favourites as they have a 10-point lead over Labour, Curtis said. The Remain parties are more divided as they include the greens and nationalist parties so their votes would be split, he said. “The Lib Dems have already said they would not prop up a government led by Jeremy Corbyn[4],” he added.
Labour, a 119-year-old party, performed very badly, securing only a 5.28% vote share in what was once its heartland, getting less votes than the six-month-old Brexit Party.
Labour is not pro-Remain enough and Corbyn’s popularity has “completely evaporated” since 2017, Curtis said. The Lib Dems sucked up votes from those who supported Remain in the EU Referendum and took votes from Labour, he added.
The byelection was triggered after 19% of Brecon’s voters signed a recall petition unseating Davies after he was convicted in a false expenses scandal. But Davies, who lives in the constituency, was still chosen by his party as the Tory candidate.
The recall procedure — introduced in 2015 — gives the electorate the opportunity to trigger an election in circumstances such as an MP being convicted of a criminal offence. For an MP to be unseated, at least 10% of voters need to sign.
The Lib Dems, who are in favour of remaining in the EU, formed a pact with two anti-Brexit parties — Green Party and Plaid Cymru — ahead of the by-election. They agreed not to put a candidate forward to give the Lib Dems maximum chances of winning.
“If the Brexit Party had not stood, the Tories would have held the seat,” Curtis said. But he said he could not see the two parties forming a pact ahead of a general election as the Tories were already winning back votes from Farage’s party.
[5]
References
- ^ Boris Johnson (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- ^ Brexit (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- ^ Chris Curtis (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- ^ Jeremy Corbyn (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- ^ Plaid Cymru (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
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